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Peace process critical to supply chain futures

[ April 17, 2026   //   ]

Kevin O’Marah, chief research officer at logistics intelligence firm, Zero100 warns that if peace with Iran is not locked in within weeks, there could be structural changes to global supply chains. War risk insurance will become a routine requirement, leading to higher insurance and security costs while shipping networks will be redesigned around safer hubs with longer and less reliable transit times.
O’Marah, who advises companies including Walmart, Maersk, PepsiCo, Nestlé, and TikTok, says: “Short-term tactics to shift inventories, seek secondary sources, and freight premiums are getting us through this crisis, but nothing will change the fact that ongoing geopolitical tensions mean costs are set to keep rising for the foreseeable future. This means redundant manufacturing capacity, higher inventories, smaller-scale production assets, and rising transaction complexity – all of which add both capital and operating expense.
But he adds: “”Regionalization is a good thing in the long run, and AI could be the breakthrough technology needed to make it all profitable. But the transition will take years. Rising costs of living are the new normal, and until we fully dial in the productivity effects of AI, we will be forced to pass along the costs of transitioning to regionalized supply chains.”
Supply chain transparency will be critical as businesses look for not only lower product supply costs, but also a good way to explain what customers get for higher prices.

Meanwhile, Chris Clowes, associate director at global supply chain and consultancy, SCALA, commented: ‘The more immediate risk from any escalation involving Iran is not necessarily widespread food shortages, but higher costs and greater volatility across the food supply chain. “If disruption around the Strait of Hormuz affects energy markets, the pressure would likely be felt first through fuel, fertiliser and transport costs. That is more likely to result in price rises and some product substitution than sustained empty shelves.”

He said thhat sector has recent experience of managing this kind of disruption. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, businesses had to absorb sharp increases in fertiliser and input costs, but this did not lead to prolonged shortages, and, as a result, many retailers and manufacturers are now better prepared, with contingency sourcing and pricing strategies already tested. Scala’s report, The Resilience Gap, found that 33% of businesses have already implemented the strategies needed to respond adequately to disruption, while 52% have started to put them in place.

“Supermarkets are also more practised in simplifying ranges when disruption hits, helping them prioritise core lines and protect availability. Overall, recent events are more likely to accelerate existing moves towards resilience, diversification and more local sourcing, rather than trigger a food availability crisis.”

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