Forwarding, Freight News, Logistics


Peaks are in the past, says Rhenus

[ June 16, 2026   //   ]

The traditional concept of a predictable peak shipping season is becoming increasingly obsolete, as global trade becomes more volatile and irregular , says freight forwarder, Rhenus. It argues that the market is no longer defined by a single seasonal surge, but by multiple, overlapping demand waves that are reshaping capacity dynamics and freight rates.

This structural shift is already visible across major trade lanes. Vessel utilisation from Asia to Europe, North America and Oceania is currently running at very high levels, as demand is brought forward at different points in the year. As a result, space availability is tightening and freight rates are increasing. Data from the Shanghai Container Freight Index shows rises of approximately 81% on Asia–North Europe and 133% on Asia–US West Coast between week 1 and week 24.

Rather than following a clear seasonal pattern, volumes are being driven by a combination of triggers. Restocking activities, forward bookings ahead of anticipated cost increases, and major retail cycles, including Amazon Prime Day and other mid-year campaigns, are prompting companies to move shipments earlier and more frequently throughout the year. This is leading to more fragmented and less predictable demand flows.

At the same time, ongoing disruption and uncertainty in the Middle East continue to reshape supply conditions. Rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope is extending shipping times, effectively reducing available capacity in circulation by tying up vessels for longer. In combination with already high utilisation, this is limiting flexibility in the system and amplifying rate volatility.

Rhenus vice-president of global ocean freight, Renee Toh, commented: “The idea of a ‘peak season’ is becoming outdated. Instead of one predictable surge, we are seeing demand fluctuate in multiple waves across the year. Volumes are less consistent, more reactive and increasingly driven by external factors, from disruptions to cost expectations and retail cycles. Calling it an ‘early peak season’ oversimplifies what is actually a structural shift in how global trade flows.”

In this environment, even short-term demand increases can quickly translate into sharper rate movements, as the market has less capacity buffer to absorb fluctuations.

Rhenus says there needs to be a fundamental change in how supply chains are managed. The focus is shifting away from planning around fixed seasonal cycles toward continuously adapting to changing market signals. This includes securing capacity earlier, optimising container utilisation, diversifying transport options and strengthening visibility.

“The idea that supply chains have returned to a stable rhythm no longer reflects reality,” added Toh. “Businesses need to operate in a constant state of adjustment, where flexibility and real-time insight are essential to staying ahead of demand shifts and disruptions.”

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