Freight News, Logistics


Energy and climate change redraw Europe’s logistics map

[ October 1, 2026   //   ]

Europe’s logistics networks are redrawn by volatile energy prices, climate disruption and shifting consumer patterns, according to the latest edition of the Paths of Distribution (PoDs) score by global real estate investment manager LaSalle Investment Management.

Based on an analysis of over 146,000 logistics micro‑markets across Europe – and, for the first time, a neural‑network model classifying more than 160,000 aerial images – the 2026 report maps the continent’s logistics stock footprint and ranks the optimal locations for distribution. The neural network mapping allows LaSalle to compare demand from distributors with actual stock density at a micro-location level, revealing whether supply is constrained or running ahead of demand and where regulation or competing land uses may be limiting logistics expansion.

Paris East tops the rankings. Créteil, in Val-de-Marne, is the highest-placed logistics micro-location, scoring in the top percentile for each of transport cost, demand, labour & operations and infrastructure. The wider eastern crescent of Île de France is the top-scoring sub-market, reflecting its connectivity to France’s consumer base and national motorway network. At the metro level, Rotterdam and London tie for first place, respectively benefiting from access to a major seaport and a dense base of consumers.

After diesel prices reached near all-time highs in 2026 due to the partial closure of the Strait of Hormuz, LaSalle modelled an alternate scenario where diesel prices rise by a further 50% above today’s level and compared this alternate scenario against its baseline model. At a country level, markets where fuel makes up a smaller share of total costs, such as Switzerland, France and the UK, are more insulated.

This scenario shows closer‑in and central locations become significantly more attractive in an energy shock, with higher rents for locations with lower transport costs. In comparison, peripheral locations, especially those previously favoured for lower land costs, become less competitive. For instance, the UK Golden Triangle, a top market measured by fuel price resilience, accounted for 40% of UK leasing in 2026, well above its 10‑year average of 30%.

The report allows investors to distinguish between metro markets that are better insulated from fuel price rises, such as Madrid, Cologne and Stuttgart, and those more exposed, like Newcastle, Leipzig and Groningen. But city‑level rankings can mask large differences in transport-cost resilience among micro-locations. In Munich, for example, motorway access alone drives approximately a 9% gap in transport costs between two locations. In a major fuel-price spike, that gap widens enough to justify an occupier paying 5% higher rent for the better-connected site.

Meanwhile, severe heatwaves in summer 2026 pushed water levels on the Rhine, Elbe and Danube to record lows, disrupting inland ports and forcing production cuts. The model shows that removing inland port infrastructure from scoring causes Düsseldorf–Duisburg, Europe’s largest inland port region, to fall out of the Top 10, highlighting the sensitivity of inland corridors to climate-driven disruption.

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