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Trump, tariffs and turbulence – what could a trade war mean for exporters?

[ December 11, 2025   //   ]

As China threatens the US position in the global pecking order, Presidents Trump and Xi are heading for a trade battle. What might that look like long term and what might it mean for UK exporters? By Matthew Ware, chief executive of UK cross-border logistics and ecommerce parcel management experts Mark 3 International.

Since its return to office in 2024, President Trump’s administration has imposed a suite of ever-changing tariffs on countries around the world, citing job creation and boosting US manufacturing as the objectives.

Trump stated clearly on 2 April that the day would “forever be remembered as the day American industry was reborn” and went on to say that international friends and foes alike should be ready for “a little tough love”. It’s clear that the President’s aim is to revive US fortunes even if it causes pain elsewhere.

While this might be the goal, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the true impact is financial chaos and uncertainty in markets around the world – including the US, with the highly regarded Tax Foundation claiming: “The Trump tariffs amount to an average tax increase per US household of $1,200 in 2025 and $1,600 in 2026.”

In Europe and the UK, exporters are facing a potent mixture of higher costs and reduced demand for exports. The result, as the ONS states, is a fall in US-bound exports of “£0.5 billion (11.4%) in September 2025, to their lowest level since January 2022.”

While these are startling numbers, further issues arise with many tariff changes appearing spontaneously, and with the flimsiest justification. This approach to global diplomacy and trade has fostered uncertainty that makes international commerce – especially for small manufacturers or retailers – particularly hard to navigate.

As the UK Government put it: “The mood has taken a protectionist turn around much of the world, threatening the familiar rules of the trading game and marginalising aspects of the multilateral architecture.” 

If you want peace, prepare for (trade) war

In the face of all this, it is entirely legitimate to wonder, “why is this happening?” While much of the pain we focus on is Euro/UK-centric, it has a lot to do with the influence of China.

Machiavelli wrote, “There is no avoiding war; it can only be postponed to the advantage of others.” Whilst we aren’t in the tragic throes of armed conflict, it’s fair to say that the tariffs are part of a larger, global issue – the trade war between China and the US, where the White House is trying to halt or reverse what it believes to be China’s increasingly aggressive pursuit of global economic dominance.

Where China’s prospects – especially its manufacturing and exports – have risen, they have been mirrored by the gradual decline of post-industrial America. The result has been greater unemployment in former industrial areas, much as seen in the UK’sx old mining. shipping, and heavy industrial areas.

Earlier this year, tensions between the US and China flared as President Trump imposed sweeping tariffs on Chinese goods – starting with a 10% blanket duty and later increasing too as much as 145% on certain categories. China responded, raising its own tariffs on US exports – including agricultural products – and restricting exports of critical high-tech inputs like rare-earth minerals. These moves mark a dramatic escalation in a long-running economic rivalry, intertwining trade policy with national security concerns.

Amid the escalation, both nations agreed in May this year to a temporary 90-day truce. Under the deal, the US reduced its tariffs on most Chinese goods from extreme highs to around 30%, while China cut its retaliatory rates down to about 10%. However, analysts say this is a fragile pause rather than a definitive resolution, with the broader trade war still reflecting deep-seated structural tensions – especially around supply chains, technology, and economic sovereignty.

The impact on exporters

The impact of Washington and Beijing’s policies is being felt by exporters around the world – especially as President Trump attempts to balance what he believes to be an unfair trade deficit.

As mentioned, the outcome has been rising costs, but this is coupled with parallel costs imposed on customers arising from more complex import procedures and perceived ever-moving goalposts. Knee-jerk reactions and impulsive changes make the trading environment even harsher, and as we enter 2026, it’s vital for exporters and retailers to expect more change and to ensure they have access to the skills and expertise to navigate such choppy waters.

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