Business, Freight News, Logistics


Uncertainty and instability push logistics confidence to new low

[ October 9, 2025   //   ]

Economic uncertainty and geopolitical instability have pushed optimism in the UK logistics sector to its lowest level in 14 years, say researchers.

The Barclays-BDO UK Logistics Confidence Index 2025, which assesses confidence and expectations in the industry, has a score of only 40.4 this year, down from 57.6 in 2024 and the lowest recorded since the research began – below the previous Covid-related low of 47.1 in 2020.

The decline in sentiment has been attributed to higher costs, sluggish growth, cautious consumers and geopolitical tensions. The report shows that nearly seven in 10 logistics operators think current trading conditions are more difficult than last year, with half of respondents (52%) expecting business conditions to remain tough in the next 12 months.

While more than half (56%) still expect to increase turnover, this is the second lowest percentage on record and could be largely driven by price increases. As part of a longer-term downward trend on profitability since 2021, 62% of respondents expect lower profits. 

The report adds that there is a polarisation between operators able to invest in future-proofing themselves and a long tail of smaller firms focused on just getting by. Nearly nine out of 10 business leaders plan to reduce costs over the next 12 months, with 48% of respondents saying it’s ‘unlikely’ they will make significant capital expenditure in the year ahead. 

BDP partner Jason Whitworth, said:“There are many logistics businesses that are fulfilling their potential and performing well, with positive steps being taken to drive change across the sector. However, our analysis reveals an unprecedented level of uncertainty. This has naturally generated real frustration, with a series of roadblocks to growth leaving many feeling under pressure.

“Despite a drop in sentiment, what our research repeatedly shows is deep-rooted resilience in the sector and an ability to bounce back from adversity, as we have seen time and again over the many years of tracking industry sentiment. Those that continue to embrace change through the likes of AI and automation will be ready to take advantage of an economic upturn and will come through the current economic challenges.”

Industry director at Barclays UK Corporate Bank, James Lean, added: “Leadership teams across the transport and logistics sector have demonstrated impressive resilience in the face of recent challenges, from fluctuating demand and global supply chain pressures to rising costs. Many operators are still forecasting revenue growth – a good sign of the sector’s strength and adaptability.

“Innovation is accelerating across the industry, with digital transformation, automation, and strategic investment opening up opportunities for growth. Larger firms are leading the way, while collaboration with SME and regional operators remains vital to the sector’s continued success.”

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