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World carries on regardless, despite Trump tariffs

[ October 14, 2025   //   ]

Global trade grew faster than in any half-year since 2010 in the first six months of 2025, excluding the pandemic rebound, according to the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker. The latest edition of the index, produced by the logistics company in partnership with New York University’s Stern university, found that while US/China business ties have diminished this has not led to a major split between geopolitical blocs, it said.

Global trade is holding strong, despite swingeing US tariffs that have hit highs not seen since the 1930s. The partners have released a special update to the Tracker, offering the first systematic assessment of how international trade and business investment are reacting to shifting US trade policy under President Trump’s second term.

Global trade is projected to keep growing. The Tracker’s composite forecast projects a 2.5% annualized growth rate in global trade volumes from 2025 to 2029 – roughly matching the pace of the previous decade. One reason why trade can continue growing even as the US raises tariffs is that only 13% of global goods imports went to the US in 2024 and 9% of exports came from the US Another is that most countries have not followed the US in implementing broad tariff increases.

DHL Express chief executive, John Pearson, said: “Despite all the headwinds, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker highlights the enduring strength of global trade. Trade barriers do not serve the world’s best interests. But we must never underestimate the creativity of buyers and sellers around the world who want to do business with each other. At DHL, we’re ready to help our customers seize the countless trade opportunities that continue to emerge across international markets.”

While US tariffs are predicted to slow global trade growth, they are not expected to stop it. Before the current wave of tariff increases (in January 2025), global goods trade volume was forecast to grow at a 3.1% annualized rate over the 2025 to 2029 period – since downgraded to 2.5%. North America experienced the steepest downgrade, with projections falling from 2.7% in January 2025 to just 1.5% by September. Most other regions experienced smaller downward revisions.

But forecasts were upgraded for South & Central America and the Caribbean, as well as the Middle East and North Africa. Most countries in these regions face relatively small US tariff increases, and Middle East trade is expected to benefit from increased oil production and exports.

The Tracker also revealed that, in the first half of 2025, international trade grew faster than in any half-year since 2010, excluding the pandemic rebound. US imports surged early in 2025 as buyers rushed to frontload purchases ahead of tariff hikes. China fully offset declining exports to the US with increased shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations region, while also substantially growing its exports to Africa, the EU, and other markets. Even after the frontloading wave in the US subsided, global trade volumes remained above prior-year levels.

Data on international corporate investment during the first half of 2025 were mixed, but they underscore the general resilience of global business. There was no evidence that companies were redirecting investment from foreign to domestic markets. The cross-border share of M&A deals, for example, remained largely unchanged. However, uncertainty did appear to deter some cross-border investment, especially smaller transactions and new investments during the second quarter of 2025.

Prof. Steven A. Altman, director of the DHL Initiative on Globalization at NYU Stern’s Center for the Future of Management, commented: “Trade and international business investment trends so far in 2025 do not support the view that globalization has gone into reverse. While it would be a mistake to disregard current policy threats to globalization, companies are not generally pulling back from international markets, trade is crossing the longest average distance on record, and geopolitical conflicts have reshaped only a small fraction of the world’s international activity. The latest data show companies managing the risks and opportunities of a connected world rather than retreating to within countries or regions.”

Despite 2024 marking the highest number of active global conflicts since World War II, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker shows no major split of the world economy between rival geopolitical blocs. While direct US–China ties continue to weaken and Russia is largely disconnected from Western-aligned economies, the world as a whole has not substantially reoriented its business ties along geopolitical lines – at least not yet.

Moreover, contrary to popular belief, the DHL Global Connectedness Tracker indicates that trade is not becoming more regional. In fact, the average distance that traded goods travelled rose to a new record of about 5,000km during the first half of 2025. The share of trade within major world regions fell to a record low of 51%.

The report also measures the wider phenomenon of globalization based on trade, capital, information, and people flows. It uses a scale running from 0% (no flows across national borders) to 100% (borders and distance have no impacts). Currently, the global level stands at 25% – nearly unchanged since its record high in 2022.

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